I build deep-dive equity theses, macro context, and process-driven frameworks to understand how businesses create value and how markets price risk.
A sample of current work. Many of these live as slide decks or PDFs; this site is a hub to organize and link them over time.
A value investing tool built by AI agents for finding directional trends, meant for quick reads on where the S&P 500 has moved and which names are worth a closer look. It measures every name across eleven trailing windows, from one day to five years, so a large cap that went sideways while the index ran is easy to isolate. Clicking one opens its fundamentals, analyst coverage, and SEC filings.
Uses Blue Owl Capital to show what happens when scale outruns oversight. Walks through the four structural risks at Blue Owl, the same pattern at Ares, Apollo, and Blackstone, and four fixes the EU and Australia have begun adopting while the U.S. has not.
A thorough look into U.S. federal debt, structural unsustainability, and the rising probability of implicit default through inflation, financial repression, and dollar debasement, arguing the fiscal position can no longer be stabilized through any politically plausible adjustment, and what that means for Treasuries, the dollar, and the exorbitant privilege.
Most projects fall into these buckets that talk to each other: company work, macro context, and process.
I start with the business and cash flows, then layer macro and sentiment on top. I care about the difference between "great companies" and "great stocks", and I use data to pressure-test stories rather than replace judgment.
This site is a living notebook. Over time I'll link more decks, notes, and code so you can see exactly how the conclusions were built.